I think you wrote a reasoned and objective article. It is easy to anticipate too much because of the successes last year in Kherson and Kharkiv. Having said that, one thing that I think also needs to be taken into consideration is the apparent lack of will of the mobilized Russian conscripts. Many of them seem to be surrendering to Ukraine. Also, what motivated army needs three lines of defense, two of which are primarily to force the cannon fodder forward? This suggests that many really don’t want to fight. Also, the evacuation of not just civilians but senior Russian officers and even soldiers who are abandoning their uniforms in favor of civilian dress, suggests that many do not want to continue with the war. They are afraid of the consequences to them personally.

We may well see results, which are more spectacular than the mere number of arms would indicate should happen. If the Russians flee in the face of the assault, we may well see a rout that is bigger than the sheer military fire power being brought to bear would suggest should happen. The real question is, how will the Russians react when the pressure is brought to bear on them? Will they fight or flee? Only time will tell.