The confident and capable Russian forces have been decimated and are no longer in control. If you read what is happening on the ground, the new conscripts are merely cannon fodder with lines behind them acting as blocking units to prevent them from retreating or giving up. When you have to force the offensive and there is no morale among the soldiers on the front lines, the situation is not tenable. Putin is merely hoping that the US elections will lessen support for Ukraine. When that does not happen, your analysis quickly falls apart. Ukraine is motivated. They have been brutalized and they are angry. Unlike the Russians, they are not stupid. They are moving slowly and methodically and consolidating their positions. Your analysis is a fantasy in my opinion and does not reflect what is really happening on the ground. The Ukrainians are well equipped with disciplined command and control. The Russians are not. They not only lack equipment and supplies, they have no training, nor any coherent command structure.