There is a rather stark contrast between your analysis, based upon events happening in Ukraine, and that of Alexander Zipyrich based upon assessments by US policy makers. You continue to paint a picture of hope where the situation is more dire for Russia every day in spite of the limited territorial gains by Ukraine. Alexander paints a picture of a failed offensive. He attributes it to timidity, failure of Ukraine to mass its forces in the south and refusal to adopt western combined arms strategy in its current offensive. Both of you cannot be right. Your analysis makes more sense. You have real world experience with military operations and with the psyche of Russia. I lean towards viewing your analysis as more credible, but it is hard to discern the truth. I certainly hope that your crystal ball is clearer than his.