Ukraine actually has more troops in reserve than most people think they do, over 1 million. Plus they are highly motivated. Even if Russia were to amass 500,000 troops on Ukraine’s northern border, chances are they would be poorly motivated and poorly equipped. They are already scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of their ammunition and tanks. They are now beginning to pull post World War II era T 54 and T-55s out of mothballs to throw into the fight. They don’t have much left.

And then there is the whole issue that Russian lines are generally three deep. The front line is used as canon fodder. The second line is used to shoot those who do not advance. The third line is composed of army regulars and contract soldiers who shoot the troops on the second line, who refuse to kill their fellow countrymen who will not advance from the front line to be slaughtered. How motivated do you really think an army like this is? And how successful do you think they really will be?